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The S&P 500 ($SPX) just logged its fifth straight trading box breakout, which means that, of the five trading ranges the index has experienced since the April lows, all have been resolved to the upside.

How much longer can this last? That’s been the biggest question since the massive April 9 rally. Instead of assuming the market is due to roll over, it’s been more productive to track price action and watch for potential changes along the way. So far, drawdowns have been minimal, and breakouts keep occurring. Nothing in the price action hints at a lasting change — yet.

While some are calling this rally “historic,” we have a recent precedent. Recall that from late 2023 through early 2024, the index had a strong start and gave way to a consistent, steady trend.

From late October 2023 through March 2024, the S&P 500 logged seven consecutive trading box breakouts. That streak finally paused with a pullback from late March to early April, which, as we now know, was only a temporary hiccup. Once the bid returned, the S&P 500 went right back to carving new boxes and climbing higher.

New 52-Week Highs Finally Picking Up

If there’s been one gripe about this rally, it’s that the number of new highs within the index has lagged. As we’ve discussed before, among all the internal breadth indicators available, new highs almost always lag — that’s normal. What we really want to see is whether the number of new highs begins to exceed prior peaks as the market continues to rise, which it has, as shown by the blue line in the chart below.

As of Wednesday’s close, 100 S&P 500 stocks were either at new 52-week highs or within 3% of them. That’s a strong base. We expect this number to continue rising as the market climbs, especially if positive earnings reactions persist across sectors.

Even when we get that first day with 100+ S&P 500 stocks making new 52-week highs, though, it might not be the best time to initiate new longs.

The above chart shows that much needs to align for that many stocks to peak in unison, which has historically led to at least a short-term consolidation, if not deeper pullbacks — as highlighted in yellow. Every time is different, of course, but this is something to keep an eye on in the coming weeks.

Trend Check: GoNoGo Still “Go”

The GoNoGo Trend remains in bullish mode, with the recent countertrend signals having yet to trigger a greater pullback.

Active Bullish Patterns

We still have two live bullish upside targets of 6,555 and 6,745, which could be with us for a while going forward. For the S&P 500 to get there, it will need to form new, smaller versions of the trading boxes.

Failed Bearish Patterns

In the chart below, you can view a rising wedge pattern on the recent price action, the third since April. The prior two wedges broke down briefly and did not lead to a major downturn. The largest pullbacks in each case occurred after the S&P 500 dipped below the lower trendline of the pattern.

The deepest drawdown so far is 3.5%, which is not exactly a game-changer. Without downside follow-through, a classic bearish pattern simply can’t be formed, let alone be broken down from.

We’ll continue to monitor these formations as they develop because, at some point, that will change.

The Senate confirmed its first nominee of the week ahead of what is expected to be a jam-packed schedule to ram through as many of President Donald Trump’s picks as possible.

David A. Wright, Trump’s pick to lead the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) for a five-year term, was confirmed in the upper chamber on a 50to 39 vote on Monday. It’s not Wright’s first time as chair of the commission, having first served in the role beginning in 2020.

Trump had previously tapped Wright during his first term, and again selected him to lead the NRC earlier this year. His new term is set to end in 2030.

The NRC is an independent regulatory agency tasked with regulating commercial nuclear power plants, reactor licensing and renewal and other elements related to protecting public health and safety when it comes to nuclear energy. Wright’s confirmation comes on the heels of Trump’s announcement that the U.S. and European Union were entering a trade deal that would see the bloc purchase $750 billion of U.S. energy over the next three years. 

While the commission is independent from other arms of the government, Senate Democrats have balked at recent attempts to make the regulatory body, in their view, more partisan.

Earlier this year, Trump signed an executive order that demanded the agency consider making its safety standards less stringent, shortening the timelines for environmental reviews and a quadrupling of the nation’s nuclear power capacity by 2050: all part of the president’s quest to ensure America’s energy dominance. 

Senate Environment and Public Works Committee Chair Shelley Moore Capito, R-W.V., argued that over the last seven years that Wright has been a part of the commission, first as a commissioner beginning in 2018 and then as chair, he would fulfill the president’s wishes. 

‘Achieving this will require experienced and highly qualified Commissioners who are empowered to lead the Agency through a period of high expectations,’ she said in a statement. ‘Well, David Wright meets that mark.’

Then Trump fired a Democratic member of the commission last month, and a staffer from the president’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) was reportedly detailed from the Department of Energy to the regulatory agency.  

That prompted Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse, the top Democrat on the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee, to warn of a ‘hostile takeover’ of the commission by the Energy Department.

The move hurt what began as bipartisan support for Wright’s nomination — Whitehouse initially backed him but changed his position.

‘I hoped to see Chairman Wright rise to the occasion, but circumstances right now at the NRC continue to deteriorate,’ he said in a statement. ‘I cannot presently support his renomination.’

Still, Wright’s confirmation is a win for both Senate Republicans and the White House after Trump called on the Senate GOP to ram his nominees through blockades set up by Senate Democrats.

There are now over 140 pending ‘civilian’ nominations for positions across the gauntlet of federal agencies, ambassadorships and judgeships. The Senate has moved at a blistering clip over the last six months to confirm nominees—they’ve clocked nearly 100 so far — the president has called on Senate Republicans to consider canceling the forthcoming August break to get more done. 

Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., warned that if his colleagues across the aisle continued to slow walk the process in the upper chamber for the slew of remaining ‘uncontroversial’ nominees, or be prepared to stick around Washington. 

‘Or they can rein in their reflexive anti-Trump sentiment and allow some of his rank-and-file nominees to proceed by unanimous consent or voice vote — just as Republicans did when the roles were reversed,’ he said. ‘And I’d remind my colleagues about the dangerous and ugly precedent that they’re setting here. But the choice is theirs. But whether it’s the slow way or the fast way, we’re getting President Trump’s nominees confirmed.’

This post appeared first on FOX NEWS

The Department of Justice has filed an official complaint alleging misconduct by US District Court Chief Judge James Boasberg. Fox News has reviewed the complaint which was written by Attorney General Pam Bondi’s Chief of Staff Chad Mizelle and addressed to the Chief Judge of the United States Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit, Sri Srinivasan.

Fox News has learned that the complaint was written and filed at the direction of Attorney General Pam Bondi.

‘The Department of Justice respectfully submits this complaint alleging misconduct by U.S. District Court Chief Judge James E. Boasberg for making improper public comments about President Donald J. Trump to the Chief Justice of the United States and other federal judges that have undermined the integrity and impartiality of the judiciary,’ says Mr. Mizelle.

Judge Boasberg is presiding over a high-profile case involving the deportation of several migrants to El Salvador and has talked about holding DOJ lawyers in contempt because of his assertion that his order to turn airborne planes around was not followed. President Trump has also made critical comments about Judge Boasberg.

The complaint details two occasions on which Judge Boasberg made comments the Justice Department alleges undermine the integrity and impartiality of the judiciary.

‘On March 11, 2025, Judge Boasberg attended a session of the Judicial Conference of the United States, which exists to discuss administrative matters like budgets, security, and facilities. While there, Judge Boasberg attempted to improperly influence Chief Justice Roberts and roughly two dozen other federal judges by straying from the traditional topics to express his belief that the Trump Administration would ‘disregard rulings of federal courts’ and trigger ‘a constitutional crisis.’ Although his comments would be inappropriate even if they had some basis, they were even worse because Judge Boasberg had no basis—the Trump Administration has always complied with all court orders. Nor did Judge Boasberg identify any purported violations of court orders to justify his unprecedented predictions.’

‘Within days of those statements, Judge Boasberg began acting on his preconceived belief that the Trump Administration would not follow court orders. First, although he lacked authority to do so, he issued a temporary restraining order preventing the Government from removing violent Tren de Aragua terrorists, which the Supreme Court summarily vacated.

Taken together, Judge Boasberg’s words and deeds violate Canons of the Code of Conduct for United States Judges, and, erode public confidence in judicial neutrality, and warrant a formal investigation.’ 

The DOJ is asking Chief Judge Srinivasan to refer the complaint to a special investigative committee as an inquiry is essential to determine whether Judge Boasberg’s conduct constitutes ‘conduct prejudicial to the effective and expeditious administration of the business of the courts.’ The complaint also asks that Judge Boasberg be taken off the case involving Venezuelan migrants who were deported to El Salvador, ‘to prevent further erosion of public confidence while the investigation proceeds.’

The case in question is J.G.G. v Trump.

This is the second time the Bondi DOJ has filed an official complaint against a federal judge. In late February, the DOJ filed a complaint about US District Judge Ana Reyes, concerning what the DOJ calls Judge Reyes’ ‘misconduct’ during the proceedings in Nicolas Talbott et al. v. Donald J. Trump et al., which is a case brought by two LGBTQ groups challenging the Trump Administration’s Executive Orders barring transgender individuals from serving in the US military.

News of the complaint comes at a time when the Trump administration has excoriated dozens of so-called ‘activist’ judges who have blocked or paused some of Trump’s sweeping executive orders from taking force in his second White House term.

Judge Boasberg in particular found himself at the center of Trump’s ire and attacks on so-called ‘activist’ judges this year, following his March 15 temporary restraining order that sought to block Trump’s use of the Alien Enemies Act to quickly deport hundreds of Venezuelan nationals to El Salvador.

Boasberg had ordered all planes bound for El Salvador to be ‘immediately’ returned to U.S. soil, which did not happen.

His emergency order touched off a complex legal saga that ultimately spawned dozens of federal court challenges across the country – though the one brought before his court on March 15 was the very first – and later prompted the Supreme Court to rule, on two separate occasions, that the hurried removals had violated migrants’ due process protections under the U.S. Constitution.

Boasberg, as a result, emerged as the man at the center of the legal fallout. 

Trump administration officials have repeatedly excoriated Boasberg both for his order and his attempt to determine whether they acted in good faith to comply with his orders, and Trump himself has floated the idea that Boasberg could be impeached earlier this year – prompting Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts to issue a rare public warning. 

The complaint, focused on months-old behavior and allegations surrounding Judge Boasberg— first tapped as a judge by then-President George W. Bush in 2002, comes at a time when he could again have a say in a major class action case brought by lawyers representing the former CECOT migrants. 

Lawyers for the ACLU and others in the class asked Judge Boasberg earlier this month to reopen discovery in the case, citing allegations from a United Nations report regarding custodial status of migrants at CECOT, and the recent decision to remove the 252 migrants sent from the U.S. to El Salvador to Venezuela under the prisoner exchange.

Asked at a status hearing in court last week whether the Justice Department would comply with the court’s orders, DOJ lawyer Tiberius Davis said they would, ‘if it was a lawful order.’

They also said they would likely seek an appeal from a higher court.

In April, Judge Boasberg also ruled that the court had found ‘probable cause’ to hold the Trump administration in contempt for failing to return the planes to U.S. soil, in accordance with his March 15 emergency order, and said the court had determined that the Trump administration demonstrated a ‘willful disregard’ for his order.

The U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit stayed his original motion in April, and has yet to move on the matter.

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When the ambulance arrived in the Kensington neighborhood of Philadelphia two years ago, an angry EMT got out and barked at the crowd, ‘Who called this in?’ 

Standing next to my cameraman and above the prone body of a shirtless soul bedecked in boils and not moving, I said, ‘I did.’ He didn’t say a word, he looked at me, then down the street at the dozens of strung out bodies, then back at me as if to say, ‘Look at all this, what do you want me to do?’

I had no answer.

Last week, President Donald Trump did answer that question with a much-welcome executive order (EO) intended to bring back civil commitment, in other words, the ability to put people who are a danger to themselves or others in institutions, even against their will.

Civil libertarians are in a tizzy over the EO. They insist this is an abuse of due process and harkens to the bad old days, when hundreds of thousands of Americans were committed to mental institutions, sometimes for dubious reasons.

But in examining and judging Trump’s proposed policy here, it is important to understand and accept what the status quo on the ground is right now, and it is nothing short of horrific.

I’ve traveled to homeless encampments all over America, from tucked-away Manhattan underpasses to the sprawling chaos of San Francisco’s Tenderloin, a place you literally smell a block before you enter.

In these encampments, your gag reflex is challenged by needles sticking out of necks and mountains of human detritus, but the real soul-crushing, existential sadness comes from knowing that these human beings are just being left to die.

For decades now, Democrats have spent endless dollars on fruitless efforts to fix the homeless problem. In California alone, Gov. Gavin Newsom has spent $20 billion on failing to fix it, and only recently admitted the encampments have to go.

In these encampments, your gag reflex is challenged by needles sticking out of necks and mountains of human detritus, but the real soul-crushing, existential sadness comes from knowing that these human beings are just being left to die.

What the Trump administration realizes is that Democrats refuse to accept is that homelessness is, actually, two very distinct problems. One is financial, the other is a matter of addiction and mental health.

Financial homelessness is fairly easy to address. The evicted mother living in her car can be given temporary housing and job assistance. She really does just need a hand up.

Homelessness related to mental illness and addiction, however, isn’t really a homelessness problem at all, it’s an addiction and mental illness problem, and shockingly, just letting people in tents shoot up in what was once a thriving commercial district doesn’t solve it.

As I have wandered the streets of these hellscapes in city after city, my question hasn’t really been if these people would be better off in an institution, but rather, if they weren’t in a de facto open-air institution already.

What does it matter if these places lack walls and locks? They are cages nonetheless, cruel prisons whether voluntary or not.

As I have wandered the streets of these hellscapes in city after city, my question hasn’t really been if these people would be better off in an institution, but rather, if they weren’t in a de facto open-air institution already.

Opponents of civil commitment insist you cannot take away people’s freedom! But freedom to do what? Shoot fentanyl every day until they die on a curbside, pockets rifled by another desperate junkie?

If it was your child on these broken and brutal streets of death, would you want them to be left in freedom to waste away, or would you want them taken somewhere where they could be protected and helped?

Opponents will say that civil commitment can be abused. They will point to the 1950s when homosexuals were sent to institutions, but it’s not 1950. We aren’t going to institutionalize gay people, and we cannot be paralyzed by a bigoted past when trying to save lives today.

Could there be abuses or mistakes made regarding civil commitment? Sure, but people are dying in the streets right now, and we must trust ourselves to actively help them, without stepping over the line.

Annoyed with me, or not, that day in Kensington, the EMT revived the man at my feet, who, it turns out, wasn’t dead, after all. Instead, he was angry, because the Narcan that woke him up also negated the high he had paid for.

There are really only two sides to be on here: the side that says we are going to do everything we can to save that man’s life, even against his will, or the side that condemns him to an open-air prison of his own making.

President Trump has chosen wisely, and if local governments take heed, it is going to save a lot of lives across America.

This post appeared first on FOX NEWS

President Donald Trump’s new deadline for Russia to end the conflict with Ukraine is an additional ‘step towards war,’ according to former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev.  

Medvedev, now the deputy chairman of the Security Council of Russia, cautioned that Trump’s announcement Monday that Russia must end the conflict with Ukraine in 10 to 12 days would not end well for the U.S. 

‘Trump’s playing the ultimatum game with Russia: 50 days or 10… He should remember 2 things: 1. Russia isn’t Israel or even Iran. 2. Each new ultimatum is a threat and a step towards war. Not between Russia and Ukraine, but with his own country,’ Medvedev said in a post on X on Monday. ‘Don’t go down the Sleepy Joe road!’

While Trump announced on July 14 that he would sign off on ‘severe tariffs’ against Russia if Moscow failed to agree to a peace deal within 50 days, Trump said Monday that waiting that period of time was futile amid stalled negotiations. 

‘I’m going to make a new deadline, of about 10 — 10 or 12 days from today,’ Trump told reporters from Scotland. ‘There’s no reason for waiting. It was 50 days. I wanted to be generous, but we just don’t see any progress being made.’

Trump’s remarks come as his frustration with Putin has grown in recent weeks amid no progress toward peace between Russia and Ukraine, and just a day after Russia launched more than 300 drones, four cruise missiles and three ballistic missiles into Ukraine, according to the Ukrainian air force.

 

Trump called out Putin for providing lip service during their discussions while not taking proactive steps to end the war. As a result, Trump said he’s grown ‘disappointed’ in the Russian leader and that he’s ‘not so interested in talking anymore’ with Putin. 

‘He talks — we have such nice conversations, such respectful and nice conversation. And then, people die the following night,’ Trump said Monday. 

Following Trump’s announcement about whittling down the deadline for a peace deal, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy thanked Trump for his ‘clear stance and expressed determination’ to resolve the conflict.

‘I thank President Trump for his focus on saving lives and stopping this horrible war,’ Zelenskyy said in a post on X on Monday. ‘Ukraine remains committed to peace and will work tirelessly with the U.S. to make both our countries safer, stronger, and more prosperous.’

Zelenskyy previously came under scrutiny from Vice President JD Vance in February during an Oval Office meeting for not voicing more gratitude for U.S. support for Kyiv as it battles Moscow.

Although Trump has historically boasted about having a solid relationship with Putin, he has publicly voiced increased frustration with Putin in recent weeks as the war rages on between Russia and Ukraine. 

‘We get a lot of bulls— thrown at us by Putin, if you want to know the truth,’ Trump said during a Cabinet meeting on July 8. ‘He’s very nice to us all the time, but it turns out to be meaningless.’

Fox News Digital’s Caitlin McFall contributed to this report.

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The Trump administration is reportedly blocking Taiwan’s president from stopping over in New York City, en route to a diplomatic meeting in Central America, following pressure from China.

The Financial Times reported Monday that the administration has denied Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te the opportunity to stop over in New York City during a planned trip to Paraguay, Guatemala and Belize — all countries that recognize Taiwan as its own independent country.

However, on Monday, the office of the president in Taiwan released a statement indicating that Lai ‘currently has no plans to go on an overseas visit,’ according to Taiwan-state media. A source familiar with the matter at the State Department confirmed that no formal travel plans for President Lai have been announced.

‘In consideration of the ongoing rehabilitation efforts in southern Taiwan following a recent typhoon and regional developments including the United States’ tariffs, the president currently has no plans to go on an overseas visit,’ the statement from President Lai said.

According to the Financial Times, which spoke with unnamed sources said to be intimately familiar with the alleged trip, Lai’s decision not to travel came after he was informed that he would not be able to stop in New York City on his way to Central America. 

Lai’s trip was also reportedly supposed to include a stop in Dallas, but it is unclear if the Trump administration was also planning to bar Lai from stopping there as well, according to the Financial Times.

The White House did not respond to Fox News Digital’s request for comment. However, a State Department source familiar with the matter indicated that the Trump administration continues to be committed to the government’s long-standing one China policy, rooted in the Taiwan Relations Act, joint diplomatic agreements with China and longstanding pledges crafted by the government in regard to Taiwan and China.

Despite being in line with longstanding government policy, the move still garnered criticism from some Asia policy experts and critics of Trump. 

Lyle Morris, a senior fellow on foreign policy and national security at the Asia Society’s Center for China Analysis, said the ‘first concrete move’ under Trump’s second term regarding Taiwan is ‘a cause for concern.’ 

‘The assumption is this decision was made in the context of ongoing US-China trade negotiations and a possible Trump-Xi meeting,’ Morris said on X. ‘Still, not a good sign for enduring US-Taiwan relations.’

‘Denying President Lai a transit is a deeply concerning break with bipartisan precedent and sends a reckless signal to Beijing that our partnership with Taiwan is on the negotiating table,’ added Democrat Sen. Andy Kim, D-N.J., in a post on X following the news about President Lai’s alleged travel. 

‘American leadership is now seen as deeply unreliable, with Trump’s fits and starts with Ukraine, NATO allies, and other key partners. I urge President Trump to reverse course and do what presidents of both parties have done and allow a transit, and ask my colleagues in Congress to join me in that call.’

News of the Trump administration’s decision to prohibit the Taiwanese president from stopping in New York City comes as the president is reportedly feeling out a potential trip to Beijing himself, alongside major U.S. CEOs. Nothing so far has been set in stone regarding Trump’s trip, however.

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After spiking above US$20,000 per metric ton in May 2024, nickel prices have experienced a downward trend, mainly remaining in the US$15,000 to US$16,000 range.

Indonesia’s elevated production levels have been a primary factor contributing to low commodity prices, as sustained high output continues to oversupply the market. The supply surplus has had a knock-on effect, putting pressure on Western producers who have been forced to slash their production to maintain profitability.

Elevated output coincides with electric vehicle (EV) demand, which is under threat as market uptake has slowed, and policy changes in the United States are expected to increase costs for consumers and lower sentiment for the vehicles.

Nickel sinks to 2020 lows

Commodity prices crashed at the start of the quarter, with nickel falling to a five-year low, reaching US$14,150 per metric ton on April 8. However, prices quickly recovered from the rout and reached US$15,880 on April 24.

The end of April saw the price once again retreat to US$15,230 as downward trend indications began to take hold. The price through May was largely rangebound, starting the month rising to US$15,850 on May 9 before collapsing again to US$15,085 on May 27.

Nickel price chart, April 01 to July 24, 2025

via TradingEconomics

June started with a short-lived rebound to US$15,510 on June 2, before falling to below the US$15,000 mark to reach US$14,840 on June 24. Since then, the price experienced some upward momentum, reaching US$15,575 on July 23.

Supply surplus causing price pressures

In a presentation at the Indonesian Mining Conference on June 30, Ricardo Ferreira, Director of Market Research and Statistics at the International Nickel Study Group (INSG) outlined the current state of the nickel market.

He suggested that high output from Indonesian miners continued to exert downward price pressures on nickel over the last several years, resulting in a decline from an average price of US$30,425 per metric ton in 2022 to an average of US$15,000 per metric ton during the first five months of 2025.

Meanwhile, combined inventories on the London Metals Exchange (LME) and the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) have exploded from 38,200 metric tons at the end of May 2023 to 230,600 metric tons at the end of April 2025.

This coincides with a 15.1 percent increase in global nickel production in 2023 and a 2.3 percent increase in 2024. The expectation is that nickel output will surge an additional 8.5 percent in 2025, with a significant portion to come from Indonesia, whose share is forecast to grow to 63.4 percent from 61.6 percent in the previous year.

The demand outlook

However, demand has not kept pace with the increase in production. Ferreira stated that demand increased by 7.8 percent in 2023, 4.8 percent in 2024, and is expected to grow by 5.7 percent in 2025.

Stainless steel has been the primary driver of nickel demand for decades. Still, Olivier Masson, Principal Analyst for Battery Raw Materials at Fastmarkets, predicts a changing demand landscape over the next couple of years.

During his CAM Minerals Market Forecast at the Fastmarkets LBRM Las Vegas conference on June 22 to 25, Masson provided insight into why he believes the current oversupply situation will begin to shift by 2027.

Currently, nickel’s primary demand driver is in the production of stainless steel, accounting for just over 2 million metric tons per year. However, the expectation is that between now and 2035, total demand for nickel will increase by 2 million tons, with stainless production accounting for just 564,000 metric tons. A compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2 percent.

“We expect to see more end-of-life scrap being generated within China, and then that should start slowing down the growth requirements for primary nickel in the Chinese stainless-steel industry,” Masson explained.

The remaining demand is predicted to come from a 12.8 percent, or 1.4 million metric ton, increase from the EV sector.

“Most of this growth will come from pure EV, so pure battery electric vehicles, where we expect sales growth of over 30 million vehicles… But we still expect an increase in plug-in hybrids with an additional 11.5 million vehicle sales over the next decade,” Masson said.

He went on to say that over that time, supply is expected to grow at a slower rate, with the majority owed to increases in nickel sulphate destined for battery manufacturing.

“So what does that mean for the balance for the nickel market? Well, the nickel market has been oversupplied for the past couple of years. We expect that to continue this year and for the next few years. So we are in a state of structural oversupply. That said, its only by around 2027 or 2028 that we think the market will start to return to a semblance of Balance,” Masson explained

In the long term, he stated that an additional 750,000 metric tons will be needed by 2035, which he doesn’t see as a significant problem.

Production curtailments continue

With the market currently experiencing a supply glut, more producers have taken to curtailing production or shuttering operations.

Since 2024, there have been closures of significant operations, including First Quantum’s (TSX:FM,OTC:FQVLF) Ravensthorpe and Panoramic Resources’ Savannah operations in Australia and Glencore’s (LSE:GLEN,OTC Pink:GLCNF,OTC:GLCNF) Koniambo Nickel mine in New Caledonia.

Likewise, Refiners have also been under pressure as BHP (ASX:BHP,NYSE:BHP,LSE:BHP,OTC:BHPLF) suspended operations at its Nickel West refinery in Australia until 2027, and Sibanye Stillwater (NYSE:SBSW) repurposed its Sandouville nickel refinery in France to produce precursor cathode active material during the first half of 2025.

According to INSG data, 32 percent of global nickel production lines are currently offline.

One of the few companies to buck the trend was Vale (NYSE:VALE), which announced a 44 percent year-over-year increase in nickel production in its Q2 2025 report released on July 22. The report indicated that nickel output rose to 40,300 metric tons from 27,900 during the same quarter last year. The company said gains were driven by strong performance from its Canadian assets and the Onca Puma mine in Brazil.

While there was some speculation that Indonesia may reduce its output, no cuts have materialized, which has in part led Australian investment bank Macquarie to downgrade its nickel outlook to US$14,500 per metric ton by the end of the year, from the US$15,500 it predicted at the end of Q1.

The impact of trade uncertainty

Base metals were caught up as part of the fallout from Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” announcement on April 2. The move applied a 10 percent across-the-board baseline tariff to all but a handful of countries and threatened to impose more significant retaliatory tariffs starting on April 9.

However, a steep US$6.6 trillion sell-off in equity markets and a squeeze in the bond market that sent yields for 10-year Treasuries up more than half a percent caused the US administration to walk back its plans. Instead, it announced a 90-day pause on the higher tariff rate and stated that it would work to negotiate new trade agreements.

The commodity price rout came as more analysts began to speculate about a recession later in 2025, which would reduce consumer spending on steel-dependent goods, such as light vehicles and new home builds.

In statements made during S&P Global’s State of the Market: Mining Q1’ 25 webinar on May 14, Naditha Manubag, Associate Research Analyst of Metals and Mining Research, suggested that nickel is likely to experience headwinds from the evolving trade policy in the United States.

“We expect nickel prices to remain volatile in the near term as the Trump administration’s trade policies continue to evolve. Forecast for 2025 global primary nickel demand is lowered to 2.8 percent year-over-year due to the expected slowdown in global economic activity,” she said.

Manubag said the slowdown would have a negative impact on demand for Chinese consumer goods, which would come alongside a rising Indonesian mining quota in 2025. Although prices spiked in March, she explained that it was due to tight supplies from the rainy season and increased royalty rates.

Manubag suggested that S&P’s overall expectation is that the nickel market will be in a surplus of 198,000 metric tons in 2025. As a result, the organization has lowered its nickel price forecast to US$15,730 per metric ton.

It’s more than just US tariffs that are expected to weigh on nickel prices in the short term. When Donald Trump signed the “One Big Beautiful” spending bill into law on July 4, it marked an end to the federal EV tax credit and other tax credits aimed at expanding charging infrastructure, a cornerstone of the Inflation Reduction Act.

The consumer credit was meant to provide a US$7,500 rebate toward the purchase of new EVs, and is expected to have an impact on overall demand when it expires on September 30.

Although the majority of nickel’s demand comes from the production of stainless steel, the growing demand from EV battery production has provided additional tailwinds; however, a decline in EV demand could impact future demand growth.

“If and when this bill is passed, a slowdown of EV uptake is expected to lead to higher EV prices and slower rollout of charging infrastructure,” Manubag said.

The big picture for investors

Currently, the easiest way to sum up the nickel market is that it’s widely disliked. The fundamentals aren’t there. A significant portion of nickel is being produced at a loss.

“You know, nickel is hated right now. I think there’s a decent case for nickel, just like when we went into platinum, right? Platinum did nothing for a decade; it just hung around US$900 to US$1,000, and now we’ve finally broken out… You have no idea when, but buy it when it’s boring. At US$900, no one cares, and then you get to ride the wave up. So I think that would be it. Pay attention to what’s unloved and hated and buy that,” he said.

Others in the investment community have expressed a similar sentiment. Although fundamentals for nickel are currently lacklustre, demand, especially from the automotive sector, is expected to grow over the next 10 years.

Securities Disclosure: I, Dean Belder, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

This post appeared first on investingnews.com

‘The uranium story itself is finally getting better… the near perfect storm is here.’ he said, noting that all the factors that should drive electrical demand higher are merging, particularly electrification and AI data center needs.

‘I don’t think uranium has to go to US$200 in order to make money,” said Grandich. I just think it needs to go back to where it was a couple years ago, a little above US$100 and these stocks will quadruple.’

Watch the interview above for more from Grandich on the energy sector and gold’s 2025 performance.

Securities Disclosure: I, Georgia Williams, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

This post appeared first on investingnews.com